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Keynote – The Dramatic Restructuring of the Integrated Circuit Industry
"The Dramatic Restructuring of the Integrated Circuit Industry"
Bill McClean
President, IC Insights, Inc.
Abstract
Throughout 2012, the expectations for global economic growth consistently deteriorated and global GDP expanded by only 2.6%. It should be noted that 2.5% or less worldwide GDP growth is typically considered a global recession. However, IC Insights’ forecast for 2013 worldwide GDP growth is 3.2%, with increasingly better growth expected for the global economy through 2016.
The IC industry is set to emerge from a difficult 5-year period of minimal growth. From 2007-2012, the IC market grew at an average annual rate of 2.0%. In IC Insights’ opinion, the “bottom” of the current cycle in the worldwide economy and IC industry was reached in 2012 and 2013 will mark the beginning of the next cyclical upturn—one in which the IC industry CAGR will more than triple to 7.4% in the next 5-year period.
Overall, semiconductor industry cycles are becoming increasingly tied to the health of the worldwide economy. While poor semiconductor industry growth has occurred during periods of strong worldwide economic growth, primarily due to semiconductor industry overcapacity and the resulting IC price declines, it is rare to have strong semiconductor industry growth without at least a “good” worldwide economy to support it. Thus, over the next five years, annual global semiconductor market growth rates are expected to gain significant momentum and closely mirror the performance of worldwide GDP growth.
Biography
Mr. McClean began his market research career in the integrated circuit industry in 1980 and founded IC Insights in 1997. During his 33 years of tracking the IC industry, Mr. McClean has specialized in market and technology trend forecasting and was responsible for developing the IC industry cycle model. At IC Insights, he serves as managing editor of the company’s market research studies and reports. In addition, he instructs for IC Insights’ seminars and has been a guest speaker at many important annual conferences held worldwide (e.g., SEMI’s ISS and Electronic Materials Conferences, The China Electronics Conference, and The European Microelectronics Summit). Mr. McClean received his Bachelor of Science degree in Marketing and an Associate degree in Aviation from the University of Illinois.
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